Study: Please the files attached. | Social Science

Research Requirement:

Please the files attached. Worksheet1.docx Worksheet 1 Reality and Science 1. Describe 5 ways in which scientific efforts is a good way to accurately understand reality. 2. Describe 3 things about science that makes it untrustworthy regarding accuracy about reality. 3. Define and explain why each of the following often make humans wrong about reality and their predictions. Describe what it is about science described above that minimizes these weaknesses. a. Overconfidence b. Belief Bias c. Confirmation Bias d. Representative Heuristic e. Availability Heuristic f. Belief Perseverance g. Ecological Fallacy 4. As humans, we use “ inductive reasoning” to turn what we observe in reality into our understanding of reality within our minds; and in doing so, we have no alternative but to turn reality into CONCEPTS (words). Additionally, we have no choice but to use CONCEPTS (words) to describe and convince others of what is REAL. Discuss a challenge or two where having to turn reality into words makes it difficult for scientists to be accurate about understanding and describing reality “ deductive reasoning”. 5. Describe how a “Quantitative” approach to trying to understand reality has different challenges of being accurate about reality than a “qualitative” approach. Below is depiction of an aggregate of humans. The variable “sex” with the attributes of “male” or “female” and the frequencies of male and female. image3.png image4.png image1.png image5.png image2.png ScientificMethods.pptx Lesson Objectives Appreciate: Biases and Overconfidence Science’s Goals Major concepts of research Concepts Variables Attributes Aggregates Frequencies Relationship Causality Purpose of Research Reasoning Qualitative vs Quantitative Review It’s so hard to believe in anything anymore…Religion…seems so mythological and so arbitrary; and on the other hand, science is just pure empiricism and by virtue of its method excludes metaphysics… I guess I wouldn’t believe in anything if it wasn’t for my lucky, astrology mood watch. -- Steve Martin Steve, I would have to agree. It’s just hard to believe in. It’s hard to believe in religion (metaphysical) It’s hard to believe in empiricism Steve, I can believe. It’s easy to believe in religion (metaphysical) It’s easy to believe in empiricism Class Activity: Confidence OVERCONFIDENCE 90% confidence Answer LOW HIGH Martin Luther King’s age at death ______ ______ ______ Length of Nile River (miles) ______ ______ ______ # of books in Old Testament ______ ______ ______ Diameter of the moon ______ ______ ______ Weight of an empty Boeing 747 ______ ______ ______ Year Mozart was born ______ ______ ______ Gestation period of Asian elephant (days) ______ ______ ______ Deepest known point in ocean (feet) ______ ______ ______ Height of Mt. Everest (feet) ______ ______ ______ Year 1st US college became coed ______ ______ ______ 39 years 4187 miles 39 books 2160 miles 390,000 lbs 1756 645 days 36,198 feet 29,028 feet 1833 Overconfidence Tendency to be more confident than correct Tendency to overestimate the accuracy of one’s beliefs and judgments Belief Bias Premise 1: Some ruthless men deserve a violent death Premise 2: Osama bin Laden was a ruthless man. Conclusion: (choose one) A. Osama bin Laden deserved a violent death B. Osama bin Laden did not deserve a violent death C. Neither of these conclusions seems to follow logically. Problems with Thinking Confirmation Bias Tendency to search for information that confirms one’s beliefs Representativeness Heuristic Judging the likelihood of things in terms of how well they seem to represent, or match, particular prototypes Availability Heuristic Estimating the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory Belief Perseverance Clinging to one’s initial conceptions after the basis on which they were formed has been discredited Ecological Fallacy – Stereo Types Inferences about individuals based on group statistics Science is a Logical Argument/Critical Thinking Science – assumptions, attitudes, and procedures for developing and testing ideas about reality that are adhered to by a professional community (a network of men and women who enforce scientific fidelity) with a shared ethos, or philosophy: attempt to describe, predict, explain, or engineer empirical (metaphysical??) conditions, events, and behaviors use systematic procedures search for causes suppose to be professionally objective assume that conclusions are tentative operate within paradigms Science’s logical argument involves….. Scientists as individuals and a community strive to: eliminate bias by making valid observations and using reliable measuring instruments demonstrate internal validity (observe what we say we observed, measure what we say we measure) demonstrate external validity (when/where this observation can/will be observed) Thinking and Reason Use Concepts Mental grouping of similar objects, events, ideas, or people i.e. chair, ball, anger, etc. Develop Prototypes Mental image or best example of a category/concept Matching new items to the prototype provides a quick and easy method for including items in a concept Variables / Attributes A variable is a concept that has multiple attributes. Weather: 20 degrees, 40 degrees, wet, sunny, etc. People: female, male, tall, short, etc. Aggregates / Frequencies Aggregates are groups of subjects. Subjects are objects that exhibit variable attributes. Frequencies are the number of observations of a specific attribute. Variables and Frequencies. Human Sex Male Human Sex Human Sex Human Sex Human Sex Human Sex Male Male Human Sex Human Sex Human Sex Human Sex Human Sex Human Sex Male Female Female Female Female Female Female Female Female Aggregate Frequencies Male = 4 Female = 8 Relationships Attributes of one variable correspond with attributes in another. Restroom Signs/Observed Gender Entered Men Women 22 0 0 18 Causal Relationships Does going to the restroom together cause pregnancy? Restroom company/Gender and Pregnancy Observed Pregnant Not Pregnant Men 0 Women 14 Men 11 Women 4 Men 0 Women 0 Men 15 Women 18 Causality A causes B if: a relationship between A and B exists A comes before B (causal order) *B does not occur without A (causal necessity) C did not cause B (rule out alternative cause) *The nature of concepts is tricky. Can their be more than one cause for suicide? Depression? Divorce? Etc. Purposes of Research Exploration Description Explanation Application Reasoning Inductive Deductive Qualitative vs Quantitative Qualitative Quantitative image1.jpeg image2.jpeg image3.png image4.png image5.png image6.png image7.png