Biology 182 ACTIVITY 11

Research Requirement:

Here is the challenge: what changes could you make to limit the average global warming to +2.0 degrees Celsius by 2100? How you get there will be your choice. The simulation offers you advanced features to alter the model (see in the menu at the top where it says ‘simulation’ and go to ‘assumptions’). This model has certain assumptions for the basic physical processes of global temperature (including such factors as ocean mixing, climate sensitivity, Biomass loss from afforestation, etc…). If you want to you can alter these assumptions, but keep in mind that these parameters are probably set based upon empirical evidence and scientific measurements – so as a scientist you’d have to have a pretty good justification for altering them. But it’s worth thinking about. Every model is based on assumptions – and if those assumptions are incorrect the model won’t be of much use. Sometimes little errors in our model assumptions can have big effects on the accuracy of the prediction – just some food for thought as we go about exploring the simulation (and also consider the intense political debates on this subject). Solutions to the problem of global warming will involve considerable investment and economic sacrifice world-wide, so it’s no wonder that it has become a political issue.